Will the Ukraine conflict trigger WWIII?
Russian Military Operations in Ukraine updates from the last week and an interview with Brian Berletic.
These are updates on the Russian military operation by writer and geopolitical analyst, Brian Berletic from his The New Atlas channel.
Update: Russian Military Operations in Ukraine - April 23, 2022
Pentagon admits a “new” major offensive is unfolding in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region;
US continues to send heavy weapons including 72 155mm howitzers and 144,000 rounds;
US is also sending 121 “Phoenix Ghost” drones but is not disclosing its function;
Mariupol city has been fully secured by Russian forces;
Russian President Vladimir Putin cancels storming of Azovstal steel plant where last Ukrainian holdouts remain;
References:
US Department of Defense - Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby Holds a Press Briefing April 21, 2022 (includes video of briefing).
TASS - Russian troops destroy 520 drones, 2,448 tanks in Ukraine operation — top brass (April 22, 2022).
Fortune - Meet the Phoenix Ghost, a secretive new drone the U.S. fast-tracked for delivery to Ukraine
Bloomberg - Transcript: Vladimir Putin’s Televised Address on Ukraine (February 24, 2022)
TASS - Putin orders to cancel Azovstal steel plant storming in Mariupol and block industrial zone: https://tass.com/politics/1440943?utm...
TASS - Russian forces take Azovstal plant administration building in Mariupol — Kadyrov
TASS - Nationalists blocked at Azovstal not allowed to surrender – Kadyrov:
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April 25, 2022: Russian Ops in Ukraine Update - Ammo shortages and other Shortcomings Ukraine Faces
Update for Russian Operations in Ukraine for April 25, 2022
Russia continues to make gains in south and eastern Ukraine;
Russia is concentrating additional forces in these regions;
US has sent 50 million rounds of small arms ammunition to Ukraine;
this is not enough to sustain combat operations in a modern armed conflict;
US officials and media struggle to match previously optimistic reports on Ukraine’s military operations versus the reality now taking shape on the battlefield;
Western “analysts” are producing war propaganda which may help explain why the Western media’s messaging is so divergent from reality;
Ukraine is being used by the West as a proxy against Russia and signs of it being disposed of like Afghanistan, Libya, and other Western-sponsored opposition movements in the past are beginning to appear;
Austria’s foreign minister has outright said he would prefer Ukraine did not join the EU.
References:
US Department of Defense - Pentagon Secretary John F. Kirby Holds a Press Briefing, April 22, 2022
Independent Institute - If You Miss the First Time, Try Firing Another 300,000 Rounds
Small Arms Survey - Beyond the Kalashnikov: Small Arms Production, Exports, and Stockpiles in the Russian Federation (2003)
Small Arms Survey - Surveying Europe’s Production and Procurement of Small Arms and Light Weapons Ammunition (2010):
WSJ - U.S. Asks Allies to Provide Ammunition to Ukraine to Avoid Stock Shortage
Daily Beast - They Want to Fight for Ukraine. They Just Need Guns
The Hill - Here’s everything the US is sending to Ukraine’s military
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) - Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 23, 2022 by Frederick W. Kagan, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Karolina Hird
Critical Threats - Frederick Kagan:
Frederick W. Kagan* is the director of the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). In 2009, he served in Kabul, Afghanistan, as part of General Stanley McChrystal's strategic assessment team, and he returned to Afghanistan in 2010, 2011, and 2012 to conduct research for Generals David Petraeus and John Allen. In July 2011, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen awarded him the Distinguished Public Service Award, the highest honor the Chairman can present to civilians who do not work for the Department of Defense, for his volunteer service in Afghanistan. He is coauthor of the report Defining Success in Afghanistan (AEI and the Institute for the Study of War, 2010) and author of the series of reports Choosing Victory (AEI), which recommended and monitored the US military surge in Iraq. His most recent book is Lessons for a Long War: How America Can Win on New Battlefields (AEI Press, 2010, with Thomas Donnelly). Previously an associate professor of military history at West Point, Dr. Kagan was a contributing editor at the Weekly Standard and has written for Foreign Affairs, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, and other periodicals.
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*Frederick W. Kagan is of course the brother of Victoria Nuland’s husband, Robert Kagan.
This is an excerpt from Neocons bent on starting another disaster in Ukraine published December 15, 2021:
“…Frederick is a resident scholar at the neoconservative American Enterprise Institute. Writing in The Hill on December 7, Frederick Kagan claimed that Russian control of Ukraine “would create an existential threat to Poland and even to Romania – one that could be met only by major deployments of US and European ground and air forces to what could become a new Iron Curtain.”
He and his wife Kimberly, who heads the Institute for the Study of War – another pro-war Washington think-tank – were close advisers to the disgraced general and former Central Intelligence Agency director David Petraeus. Indeed, both Frederick and his wife are frequently cited as the brains behind the surge strategy pursued by George W Bush’s administration in 2007-2008.
But the most powerful member of the Kagan clan is Victoria Nuland, who is the wife of Robert and is the US undersecretary of state for political affairs.
Under Barack Obama, Nuland served as the State Department spokeswoman, a position for which she was manifestly overqualified (and that becomes especially clear if one takes the qualifications of the current spokesman into consideration), before assuming the role of assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs.
It was in this role that Nuland helped orchestrate the overthrow of a democratically elected president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, in February 2014 that led to a civil war in which more than 13,000 people have died, according to the United Nations.
Part of the reason the US is at grave risk of a war with Russia – and there is precious little debate about the policies that have brought us to this point – is that foreign policy in Washington is conducted by a virtually closed circle.
And that circle is dominated by people like the Kagans.
Washington’s legacy media organizations play their part in perpetuating these foreign policies as well by functioning as the permanent bureaucracy’s echo chamber. For proof, look no further than the Washington Post editorial page, which from the very start of the Ukraine crisis has been cavalierly dismissing calls for diplomacy and engagement and, instead, has been calling for outright war.
An example of this is the Washington Post view published on its editorial page on August 21, 2014:
“… It is tempting to look for a ceasefire or some kind of time out that would lead to a period of diplomatic negotiation. But what would a pause and diplomacy accomplish? Any negotiations that leave this blight festering in Ukraine must be avoided. The only acceptable solution is for [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s aggression to be reversed.”
As Jacob Heilbrunn, the editor of The National Interest, and I commented at the time, “Almost as bad as the callousness on display is the lack of candor. At no point did the [Washington] Post actually explain how it would propose to go about reversing Putin’s aggression.”
This remains the case even today. At no point do the armchair warriors braying for war with Russia over Ukraine discuss how such a “reversal” might be carried out, or, even more tellingly, what the odds might be of a successful outcome of a war between the US and Russia.
Not much has changed since the start of the Ukrainian crisis nearly eight years ago. Consider for a moment the testimony on “Update on US-Russia Policy” by Nuland made before the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee (SFRC) on December 7.
Nuland testified:
“We don’t know whether Russian President Putin has made a decision to attack Ukraine or overthrow its government but we do know he is building the capacity to do so. Much of this comes right out of Putin’s 2014 playbook but this time, it is on a much larger and more lethal scale. So despite our uncertainty about exact intentions and timing, we must prepare for all contingencies, even as we push Russia to reverse course.”
Nuland went on to note that the US government has given $2.4 billion to Ukraine since 2014 “in security assistance,” which includes $450 million so far this year alone.
What, one wonders, has been the United States’ return on this massive investment?…
This is Brian’s overview of his Update on Russian Military Operations in Ukraine for April 27, 2022:
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin establishes monthly “consultative” meetings regarding Ukraine;
Germany to send 50 “Cheetah” anti-air tracked vehicles;
Western anti-air capabilities do not compare to Russia’s and nothing short of a NATO intervention can turn the tide regarding the balance of air power in Ukraine;
West recklessly dismisses Russian warnings about nuclear war;
provocations around Moldova and Transnistria may be NATO ploy to establish NATO-controlled buffer zone preserving Ukraine’s access to the sea near Odessa;
Pentagon, others refuse to admit Russia has taken Mariupol;
Donbas situation is dire for Ukraine;
Ukraine cannot reconstitute lost forces faster than Russia is removing them from the battlefield;
References:
US Department of Defense - Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III Holds a News Conference Following Ukraine Defense Consultative Group Meeting, Ramstein Air Base, Germany.
DefenseNews - As Raytheon struggles to replenish Stinger missiles, lawmaker pushes Defense Production Act
New York Times - Biden’s Choice for Pentagon Faces Questions on Ties to Contractors
DefenseNews - Germany sending ‘Gepard’ air-defense tanks to support Ukraine defense
CSIS Missile Defense Project - Russian Air and Missile Defense
Business Insider - Russia's newest anti-air defenses are in Syria — and the US should be worried (2018)
The National Interest - Turkey's Leopard 2 Tanks Are Getting Crushed in Syria
Business Insider - In Transnistria, controlled by pro-Russia separatists, a fear of war and a toast: 'To the death of Putin'
BBC - Ukraine round-up: Russia hits railways as US pledges extra weapons:
DW - Alexander Vindman on Ukraine: 'Germany's position is irrational' | DW News:
US Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman was the director for European affairs for the US National Security Council under former President Donald Trump. He testified in Congress on Trump’s attempts to influence Ukrainian President Volodmyr Zelensky to investigate Trump’s rival, Joe Biden; his statements were instrumental in Trump’s impeachment.
Vindman was born in Ukraine and served for the US military in Iraq, earning a Purple Heart for his service. He is an expert on defense and security. He connected with DW Washington Correspondent Sumi Somaskanda on the war in Ukraine, the West, and lessons learned.
AP - Zelenskyy: Ukraine army unable to unblock Mariupol (Video: 20 April 2022)
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Please watch Brian’s interview on Press TV embedded in the image below where he discusses Sergei Lavrov’s remarks that, “the danger of a World War III is serious and should not be underestimated.”
This is my transcription of the interview:
Brian: I think they are very wise words that are unfortunately going to go unheeded in the West. We saw a very similar situation unfold during the conflict in Syria. When Russia became involved in 2015 onward, there were a lot of fears about a direct clash between Russian and U.S. forces with the U.S. illegally occupying Syria at that time, and still to this day. There was a lot of work on both sides to try to avoid that but there were still a lot of very very close calls.
Now in Ukraine, things seem much more desperate and much more dangerous. It’s all the danger that we witnessed in Syria with this very added element of desperation on the West’s part. It’s very dangerous.
Q: How much of a threat is the West supplying arms to Ukraine? How much of a provocation is it?
Brian: It’s a major provocation. Essentially the U.S. and its allies are waging a proxy war against Russia. They are sending these weapons and training Ukranians how to use them to kill soldiers of the Russian Federation and their allies, and this is on top of an 8 year war that the U.S. and its allies were helping Ukraine fight against their own people in eastern Ukraine. It’s a very very dangerous situation and we could possibly understand just how dangerous it is if we just reversed the roles and imagined maybe a nation like Russia or China doing this to the United States, what their feelings and reaction would be to such a situation.
Q: Moscow had previously warned the West of unpredictable consequences if it continues with its arms supplies to Ukraine, and now, Sergei Lavrov says, the danger of a third world war is serious. Do you think the unpredictable consequence might be a third world war?
Brian: It may be. Again this was a threat looming over all of our heads all during the conflict in Syria. As the West is sending these weapons, and the fact that it might not really make any difference at all on the ground, it’s going to spur the West to do more and more desperate things. We have already heard reports of Western special forces fighting on the ground in Ukraine. Just how far are they going to try to go with this? try to snatch victory out of the jaws of defeat in Ukraine? It’s very dangerous. I think everyone is wise to speak-up about this threat.
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Not surprisingly, Brian is now in the sights of Ukraine’s Center fo Countering Disinformation:
If you look at the replies to the NSDC of Ukraine’s tweet and quoted tweets, they are primarily by people raving about Brian’s excellent analysis.
These are Brian’s alleged disinformation crimes:
According to Wikipedia which I am only using because I don’t want to go directly to the CCD website:
The Center for Countering Disinformation (CCD) (укр. Центр протидії дезінформації) is a working body of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine established in accordance with the decision of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine dated March 11, 2021 "On the creation of the Center for Countering Disinformation",[1][2] enacted by Presidential Decree No. 106 of March 19, 2021.[3]
The Center ensures the implementation of measures to counteract current and projected threats to Ukraine's national security and national interests in the information sphere, ensuring Ukraine's information security, identifying and counteracting disinformation, effectively countering propaganda, destructive information influences and campaigns, and preventing attempts to manipulate public opinion. [Continued…]
Alexander Rojavin writing in a blog for the Law & Public Policy Program at Temple University Beasley School of Law, Philadelphia states:
On April 5, Ukraine’s new Center for Countering Disinformation officially came online. Framed by its inaugural director Polina Lysenko as aiming to “to counteract propaganda, destructive disinformation and campaigns, as well as to prevent manipulation of public opinion,” the Center is designed to be a flagship of the Zelensky administration’s counter-disinformation efforts. The administration has every reason to hope for the Center’s success, and if it is indeed successful, the resulting benefits would be widespread—global, in fact.
Such an outcome is exactly part of President Zelensky’s ambitious vision: he sees this Center becoming a vital hub of counter-disinformation strategy and resources not just domestically, but internationally. His vision is grounded in sound logic. Though many democracies have been plagued by the Kremlin’s disinformation efforts, Ukraine, as the President’s office put it, has served for several years as a “testing ground” for the Kremlin’s disinformation experiments. Much as Ukraine’s military has spent seven years in a de facto state of war, so have Ukraine’s journalists and civil society spent seven years operating on the front lines in a state of information war. Consequently, journalists like Savik Shuster and Dmytro Gordon, and NGOs like StopFake can offer a veritable arsenal of knowledge on what forms disinformation takes, what works well against it, and how it is likely to evolve. And the new Center would do well to foster intimate cross-sector ties with Ukrainian civil society, draw on this considerable, battle-tested arsenal, and relay it to its international partners.
However, how specifically the Center will implement its broad mandate remains to be seen. Though the Center seems to be enjoying buy-in from both domestic and international partners—in a meeting with the Zelensky administration on April 6, the ambassadors to Ukraine from the G7, Finland, and Israel, and the heads of the NATO and EU missions to Ukraine discussed potential collaboration with overt interest—it needs to explicitly identify the activities it will undertake.
It is also equally critical that the Center enshrine in its mission statement and all foundational internal and external communications an unwavering commitment to the freedom of speech and of the press. It will be all too easy to accuse the Center of tumbling down a slippery slope that results in a state-controlled information space as in Russia, which is why the Center must assert its commitment now at its very formation and begin demonstrating the transparency of its operations. [bold mine]
While there has been quite a bit of demagogic, if not entirely incorrect, rhetoric on the subject—for example, on the February 5 livestream of the political talk show Savik Shuster’s Freedom of Speech, Interior Minister Arsen Avakov declared that “freedom of speech does not mean freedom of propaganda for an aggressor state”—the Center has at its disposal a useful resource: the Zelensky administration’s short history of well-received counter-disinformation acts. On February 25, a regional court blacklisted several Russian sites that served as disseminators of disinformation. On February 2, President Zelensky closed three TV channels owned by a Kremlin ally. However, rather than cause much controversy, the move was a popular one, as it was done on advice received from the intelligence community, and once the channels were taken down, Ukrainian journalists and NGOs working to protect the freedom of speech published an open letter in support of the move. In plainly asserting its commitment to the freedom of speech, the Center should use these scenarios to begin distinguishing malignant disinformation from legitimate journalistic activity and signal what measures it may take. The Center must be shamelessly transparent in its definitions and its activities, and communicating this at its inception would be strategic and reassuring.
A robust fourth estate is instrumental to a democracy’s immune system and the effective workings of its information space, and with the end of the Covid pandemic inching into sight, disinformation will resume its reign as one of the most insidious global epidemics today. It is reassuring, then, that with the new Center for Countering Disinformation, Ukraine can now share the wealth of counter-disinformation experience it has amassed as the Kremlin’s disinformation laboratory with the world, and democracies worldwide have the opportunity to learn from Ukraine’s extensive firsthand experiences with the Kremlin’s information war machine.
Please take a look at the contents of this page dedicated to the Center for Countering Disinformation on the Holodomor Museum website:
Here is another section of the page on the Holodomor Museum website:
4. “Military operation.” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the annexation of Crimea, capture of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The Russian-Ukrainian war began in 2014 and entered a phase of open destruction of Ukrainians by the Russian occupiers on February 24, 2022. The genocide of the Ukrainian population by Russia continues in Kharkiv, Mariupol, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zhytomyr, and Kyiv, Ukrainian cities where most Ukrainians speak Russian. According to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, more than 15,000 Ukrainians have died in the war since 2014.
Russia’s killings of Ukrainians must be stopped! #stoprussia
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The propaganda and disinformation regarding Russia and Ukraine is off the charts.
This is not the end.