I highly recommend listening to what Alastair Crooke had to say yesterday about what has and is happening with the more than tense situation between Israel and Iran following the Zionist state’s initial attack and Iran’s response, during his discussion with Judge Napolitano.
The following is a reposting of the interesting information Alastair shared on his Conflicts Forum Substack yesterday from various sources.
‘Netanyahu opens a new era of Israeli-Iranian 'nuclear war'’ /
Ronen Bergman: ‘CENTCOM Commander Kurila led senior Israeli military officials to believe US would join attack, including with bunker-busters’
“Pain, exhaustion, and uncertainty define Israeli society right now” — Does Israel have an exit strategy? /
Israel opened, and opened impressively, but the US will have to finish the job /
Ronen Bergman: In the shadow of ‘preparations’ for Israel’s attack, "the Defense Establishment does not believe a word Netanyahu says"/
‘Netanyahu returns to his bunker. Without American aid, without nuclear destruction, without an exit strategy, without an economy. With destruction and terror in Israel outside the bunker’ /
Israel announces plan to evacuate & destroy civilian neighbourhoods in Tehran, “just like Beirut” /
IDF announces Gaza now a "secondary arena"; “Defeat of Hamas no longer a bedrock of our existence”
[These compilations are drawn from analysis & commentary by leading Israeli political and security commentators, predominantly published in Hebrew — as reports published in Hebrew often provide a different window on Israeli internal discourse].
Netanyahu has opened a new era in the Middle East. An era of Israeli-Iranian 'nuclear war' (Eran Etzion, former Israeli Deputy National Security Adviser, 13 June):
Initial analysis of the pre-emptive war declared by the Netanyahu government on Iran:
1. Going to a pre-emptive war, in a democratic country, requires an immediate and clear reason. The government and the IDF claim such a pretext, in the form of an "Iranian hack of a bomb in recent days." No evidence has been presented for this … Allegations are also being made about the production of ballistic missiles and the completion of a new underground facility. These are not acceptable claims in international law or in the international arena.
2. The truth is that Netanyahu was looking for an excuse to go to war, for personal and political reasons that every Israeli and every international player understands well. It remains to be seen whether the security and intelligence system played its role in the decision-making processes or was subdued and cooperated with foreign considerations of the political echelon. There is a serious concern that a "historic operational opportunity," and the need to forget 7/10 and the failed war in Gaza, also dictated the tone for the senior professional echelons.
3. The real goals of the war have not yet been revealed. But it can be assumed that they include a significant delay in the Iranian nuclear project (a year? two years?), damage to the production of missiles and UAVs, and - less clearly but apparently - destabilizing the regime to the point of overthrowing it.
4. It is still too early to assess the extent to which the nuclear and missile capabilities have been damaged, and it is certainly too early to guess whether and to what extent the regime has been destabilised …
5. US and Israel - Netanyahu has been trying for decades to drag the US into a war with Iran … The official US line is "We knew about the Israeli plan, but we did not cooperate." And "If Iran responds, we will respond too." Apparently, the administration hopes to force Iran back to the negotiating table with fewer cards and more pressure to reach an agreement. Such a scenario cannot be ruled out, but it is unlikely ... It is more likely that Iran will enter a long phase of open war against Israel, and of a proxy war against the US throughout the Middle East. And Trump may find himself leading a Big War in the Middle East, in complete contradiction to his promises to the voters.
6. Perhaps the most important point - Iran operates under a doctrine of 'strategic patience'. It has been building the nuclear project for about 40 years. It will not give it up overnight, even if the Israeli military achievement surpasses all imagination. One could almost say - 'on the contrary.' Apparently, the Netanyahu regime has given the Iranian regime internal and even international legitimacy to obtain nuclear weapons. The Iranian narrative could be - "Our civilian nuclear facilities, and military and civilian targets on our territory, were attacked by a rogue nuclear state, whose head is a war criminal wanted by the ICC. Under these circumstances, we have the right and the duty not only to defend ourselves, but also to arm ourselves with nuclear weapons."
7. In conclusion: Netanyahu has opened a new era in the Middle East. An era of Israeli-Iranian 'nuclear war'. A war whose stated reason is to stop the nuclear project, but which is in fact a threat to the Iranian nuclear regime … this is not "another war". This is a new page in Israeli history. And the conditions and circumstances and the people operating on the Israeli side are horrifying. No Israeli war has been waged by so few, so incompetent people, who have destroyed the state's institutions and decision-making processes, and who are all driven by foreign and improper considerations. And when a clearly incompetent president sits in Washington, who is also weakening and dismantling American democracy and the institutions of the state there with alarming force and pace - history shrinks in fear.
In the shadow of ‘preparations’ for Israel’s attack, "[Israel’s] defence establishment does not believe a word Netanyahu says" (Ronen Bergman, leading Israeli intelligence commentator, 12 June):
In these fateful days, a senior military official describes that "many in the defense establishment do not believe a word Netanyahu says, even in closed rooms". A source who was present at such a discussion added: "The ability to understand what he is planning is very small." Despite a "historic window," and despite the possibility that this is a "deceptive exercise" by Trump and the PM, the chance of deterioration is tangible: "It could blow up in our faces”. Amid [this] backdrop, there is a severe crisis, a record low in trust between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and senior figures in the security establishment - from him to them, and from them to him. There is no debate on the question of subordination, and there is no doubt that the military-intelligence-security echelon will act according to the instructions of the political echelon. But when sources close to Netanyahu, and perhaps not only the sources, believe that senior officials in the defense establishment leaked information to the White House, to Trump, that Netanyahu intends to attack Iran without coordination and without notification - which led to the irritated phone call two and a half weeks ago; and on the other hand, when senior officials in the army and the intelligence community say in harsh words that they do not trust Netanyahu's judgment, because they fear that he is acting from foreign motives, and that he is not telling them the whole truth and does not provide information that is essential for operating the army and preparing for what is to come - when all this happens, the consequences could be extremely serious. "There is no interface in the State of Israel that must be based on full transparency and full trust more than this interface," says one of the former heads of the security forces familiar with what is happening. "And right now, that is not the case, absolutely not" …
But in a world where both sides have stopped believing each other," says a senior IDF officer, "in a world where the army's legal advisors refused to enter meetings on the establishment of the new humanitarian aid system, because they believed that it served improper political motives, and used improper means of the intelligence community, to hide vital information from the citizens of the country," he added, "in a world where senior officers in the IDF spokesman understand that they are talking about all sorts of things that have been imposed on the army like a bucket … they don't ask, they don't check, they don't want to know, because 'who isn't afraid of the Hag', in a world where the IDF discovers that the prime minister's military spokesman, the one they think has been plotting against them the entire war to deflect blame from his boss, actually worked for another boss, some Qatari intelligence man - in this world, it's no wonder we reach truly crucial moments. Not like the crucial moments twice a week , which are reported on television in connection with the hostage deal - and many in the security establishment do not believe a single word Netanyahu says, even if it is said in closed rooms and in limited and relevant forums" …
The painful truth about aid to Gaza [for example] … The painful truth is that the IDF understood the way in which the political echelon releases statements to the media - appropriating successes for itself and only itself, and blaming the military echelon for failures … or even worse, appropriating to the military echelon plans and actions that it itself conceived, initiated, ordered, and implemented, ones that the security establishment not only did not conceive but also strongly opposed, and ones that could place senior IDF officials on the dock at The Hague.
These are fateful days, hours and minutes for Israel and the entire region. … For senior Israeli security officials, the situation this time is especially difficult: "We cannot make a true assessment without trying to analyze the 'blue side'," as one of the senior officials said in a closed discussion. "But we are also forbidden to do such a thing, and also, to borrow an expression that you (journalists) like - we must honestly say - even if we were allowed to, and we tried, our ability to truly understand what Netanyahu and the group close to him are planning - is very small. This thing, the disconnect and lack of trust between the political echelon and the military-security-intelligence echelon, is disastrous and causes serious damage every day to the security of the country." "The continuous targeting of missiles and 'flying objects' could pose a challenge that we have not yet encountered in terms of defending the home front, bases and facilities, and all this against the challenge of several interceptors and a laser system that is not yet operational."
The words said by this source are repeated by other senior officials, some of whom use less gentle language with harsh statements about "losing it," "uninhibited" or "madness" as a description of the Prime Minister's conduct. One of them, a fan of the "Game of Thrones" genre, even compared Netanyahu to the "evil king" who lost his mind and began slaughtering his subjects and entangling his kingdom in lost and blood-sucking wars. These are statements that come from deep frustration and of course do not reflect any knowledge or clinical expertise to reflect the Prime Minister's condition. Netanyahu even won a defamation lawsuit on this issue. But the very fact that they are being spoken, unprecedented words in the busy and always sensitive history of relations between the political and military-intelligence echelons in Israel, is a good example of the situation in which Israel and its soldiers and citizens find themselves.
If Israel, as the world reports, is indeed about to attack Iran with a severe air strike, then there are senior figures in the defense establishment who are strongly opposed to this. Everyone agrees that an unprecedented, one-off, extraordinary and historic opportunity has been created that will never be repeated, a once-in-a-lifetime window, to attack Iran … Some believe that we should seize this opportunity and attack immediately and precisely one hour earlier - and it is a pity that we did not act sooner. On the other hand, there are those, and they are probably most of the senior figures at the top of the defense establishment, who are not sure that we should jump into every window, even if it is historic, because sometimes such a jump could end in a painful crash on the sidewalk on the other side.
Initially, the Prime Minister believed this, and senior military officials were also enthusiastically swept along with him, relying on what they heard from CENTCOM Commander General Michael Kurila, who led them to believe, they claim, that the US would not only turn a blind eye In the face of an Israeli attack, and not only will it defend Israel if Iran attacks back, but will even attack with it, bringing in the B1 bombers from the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, and they will drop the MOAB, "the mother of all bombs," almost 11 tons of bunker-penetrating hell, which if dropped one after the other in the same location, can destroy even the deepest tunnels, bombs that Israel does not have, and even if it did, it does not have the planes to drop them. Then it became clear that Kurila was wrong, or that Trump had changed his mind, and the US was not going to participate in such an attack … And given a "solo" Israeli attack, there are many, perhaps even the majority, in the defense establishment who believe that given the limited damage that Israel can cause to the Iranian nuclear array, the benefit of the whole thing may be less than the harm.
Is Iran about to leave the NPT? (Ben Caspit):
The announcement by the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman that Iran is preparing to withdraw from the NPT is a dramatic event. It indicates the ayatollah regime's intention to go nuclear, to the dismay of Israel (and America). This was the worst-case scenario, in which an Israeli attack would spur Iran to leave the treaty and go nuclear openly. It has not happened yet. It is likely that this is a bargaining chip that the Iranians are currently waving against the US. But it is a bad sign and we should leverage it against the US and hope that this will cause the Americans to come down from the fence and attack Fordow.
Israel opened, and opened impressively, but the US will have to finish the job (Nadav Eyal, Yedioth Ahoronot, 13 June):
At the root of things is (what appears to be) American-Israeli coordination. In this war, Israel is the bad cop, the American administration is the good cop. Israel attacks, the Americans tell the Iranians – we are not in the business, and we would be happy to reach an agreement. This is what happened last night … True, Israel can inflict spectacular and severe blows on Iran, and deprive it of capabilities … But what we started, only America can truly finish. Only the US can put enough pressure on the ayatollahs so that they will absorb the fierce blows and decide to drink the cup of poison again - for the survival of the regime.
What is the real goal of the campaign against Iran?(Danny Citrinowicz, Fellow at Institute for National Security Studies & Atlantic Council; previously 25 years in variety of command positions units in Israel Defense Intelligence, 16 June):
The Israeli government justified its campaign against Iran by the need to remove the nuclear threat and degrade Iran's missile capabilities. But now, the question arises as to what the real goal of the campaign is, since it appears that, with the exception of Fordow (which Israel's ability to strike is thus limited), Israel has completed its attacks against the other sites in Iran related to Iran's nuclear fuel cycle … But according to the list of targets that Israel is attacking, it seems that the Israeli campaign is expanding in a way that is not directly related to the goals of the campaign or only to preserving the air superiority achieved at its opening. It is possible that there is an opportunity being exploited "because the road to Tehran is open," but how are these goals related to the goals of the war?
If the State of Israel decided to change the goals of the war or had a "hidden" goal of attempting to overthrow the Iranian regime, perhaps it would be worth telling the Israeli public, because in the nuclear and missile systems, it seems that most of the achievements have been exhausted. The continuation of the campaign risks Israel entering a state of severe attrition. … Furthermore, regardless of the results of the campaign, upon its conclusion we will have to ask ourselves whether we went into the campaign because there was a golden operational opportunity that was "dressed" with justifications as if Israel had a sword at its neck or not. Israel has never gone into the campaign against the conventional buildup of its neighbors, and if Iran was a minute away from a bomb, why did the US not join us, and especially why did the public reports of American intelligence repeat the claim that Iran had not made a decision to build nuclear weapons at all?
‘SHORT-LIVED EUPHORIA?’
What they’re saying: ‘The euphoria was short-lived. By Friday morning, I was wondering: was it necessary to enter this war at all?’ (Yossi Melman, Haaretz security & intelligence correspondent):
"The euphoria was short-lived. By Friday morning, I was wondering: was it necessary to enter this war at all, especially against the Iranians? Shiites are historically prepared to endure suffering. I recalled their readiness to sacrifice as they proved during the eight years of attrition with Iraq. I advise that we minimize losses and that you turn to Trump to stop this madness through a reasonable agreement, otherwise we will find ourselves ultimately begging for a ceasefire, and Iran will refuse" … The war will last at least another two weeks. This is what the government estimates/wants. It has issued an order extending the state of emergency in the country until the end of June.
What they’re saying: ‘War until victory’ (Ariel Kahana pro-government Israel Hayom, 13 June):
Senior Israeli sources have [said] that the objective is to systematically deny Iran's capabilities to destroy Israel. These capabilities encompassed the nuclear project and missile program … Israel must continue intensive operations against Iran despite its current achievements. Consequently, Israel anticipates continuing attack waves against Iran for at least several more days, possibly longer. Israeli officials stress that, unlike previous rounds with Iran over the past year and a half, this represents a unilateral, extended, and sustained Israeli initiative until objectives are met.
What they’re saying: “There is no one to stop the madness” -- Netanyahu’s plan: Evacuate & destroy civilian neighbourhoods in Tehran: (Yossi Melman, 16 June):
There is no one to stop the madness. Ariel Kahane [in] Israel Hayom, writes about the Israeli response plan to the attack on population centers: The IDF will announce an evacuation order for neighborhoods in Tehran in the coming hours. After that, the Air Force will demolish buildings, similar to what Israel did in Beirut … The IRGC announced [it’s] air force had carried out missile attacks that were "more powerful and deadly than previous waves," and that this was "a new stage in the fight against the Zionist regime." The statement claimed that the attacks had caused confusion in Israeli defense systems and that in some cases the Israeli defense systems had even fired at each other.
What they’re saying: For now, no collapse of the Iranian regime from within; for now, it appears that most of the Iranian nuclear program has remained intact (Raz Zimet, leading Israeli Iran expert, 14 June):
For now, the solution to the Iranian threat is probably not coming from the collapse of the regime from within. At this stage, it appears that the regime is maintaining its cohesion, determination, and vitality, and is even aligning its ranks in the face of the external threat. Alongside the significant successes Israel has achieved in the early stages of the campaign, it is worth remembering that its main goal remains the same: to thwart the Iranian nuclear program. Despite the attacks on key enrichment sites, such as Natanz and Fordow, the conversion site in Isfahan, and the assassination of scientists involved in the production of the nuclear warhead, it appears that most of the Iranian nuclear program has remained intact, at least for now.
What they’re saying: “Even if you put the devil in the place of the Islamic Republic, people would not stand by Israel. Because here it concerns the homeland, Iran” (Yoav Zehavi, Kaan News commentator):
A message I received from a Tehran resident with whom I am in daily contact. He is, of course, only one of 10 million who live there: "There have been many messages on this subject: "Israel's attack today created a wave of hatred and anti-Semitism in the public. Even on Instagram I saw people re-sharing a speech by Hitler, in which he says why he left some Jews alive". A burning feeling of hatred that erupts into the streets and networks. It is true that the public is angry with the regime, but even if you put the devil in the place of the Islamic Republic, people would not stand by Israel. Because here it concerns the homeland, Iran. I don't understand why Israel put itself - and all of us - in such a situation. But I know one thing: Even if the regime falls, the seed of hatred that Israel sows here will not be forgotten. It will remain in the hearts of the people for decades to come".
What they’re saying: IDF announces that Gaza is now a "secondary arena"; “Defeat of Hamas no longer bedrock of our existence” (Uri Misgav):
The kidnapped, the killed last week and all those who were killed and murdered before them - secondary. The Philadelphia axis, the Netzarim axis, the Morag axis, the defeat of Hamas, the elimination of the tunnels - are no longer the bedrock of our existence. Likud spokesman Guy Levy posts an AI post at night that clarifies the real purpose of the war. Netanyahu is a chess player who plays against his opponents who only know how to play. You are welcome to continue talking about centrifuges, fissile material and ballistic missiles. That is, to serve the criminal organization of Netanyahu and his aides.
What they’re saying: Israeli media is emerging from this war irrelevant, (David Verthaim, senior Israeli business journalist):
Israeli media is emerging from this war irrelevant and failing in their first and main role: to report. It started with the siege of images in Gaza and continued with the attacks in Israel. The only alternative is foreign networks or pirate channels on Telegram. A huge laboratory building [the Weizmann Institute] was destroyed, Israel's leading research institute. The IDF says today that infrastructure was damaged. No news about the Weizmann Institute? Not to mention the Kirya. Is there anyone who doesn't know there was a fall there? You see it in the videos! Is this independent media? If there is censorship -- go to the High Court. Fight for the public's right to know, so that they can at least decide for or against when the whole picture is before them.
What they’re saying: Netanyahu returns to the bunker. Without American aid, without nuclear destruction, without an exit strategy, without an economy. With destruction and terror in Israel outside the bunker (Uri Misgav, leading Protest movement commentator):
This is what your cowardly supreme leader looks like. Interviewed from the bunker for Fox News … [He] released videos about "our wonderful pilots." Those he and his government slandered, defamed, claimed they could be done without and that they should go to hell. Visits Bat Yam [bomb site] for a few minutes. Returns to the bunker. Without American aid, without nuclear destruction, without an exit strategy, without flights, without an economy. With destruction and terror in Israel outside the bunker.
What they’re saying: “This Jew is raising our stature to a height I haven't read about in books. With God's help, we will succeed” (Jonathan Urich, former key strategic adviser to Netanyahu, now leading suspect in Qatargate case)
“2015, ten years have passed. PM Netanyahu goes to Congress to fight for our lives against a dangerous nuclear agreement with Iran. I hear him speak against then-US President Obama, with Elie Wiesel in the audience, in front of a portrait of Moses, and I think of my grandfather who was beaten by Nazis and my grandmother who starved for bread in Siberia, and I say to myself, silently, that this Jew is raising our stature to a height I haven't read about in books. With God's help, we will succeed”.
'"‘They've fled! Almost all coalition members hiding inside the State of Israel's strategic 5-star bunker for more than 24 hours’ (Ami Dror, protest leader and senior tech entrepreneur):
It's official: They've fled! Almost all of the coalition members have been hiding inside the State of Israel's strategic bunker for more than 24 hours. I'm back. They, their family members, all the dodgers, those who dance "We'll die before we enlist", some of the members of the Likud Center, the "kids", all in the 5-star bunker!!! Hiding!! And you? Those without the battalion commanders - you'll manage. Maybe there's some free parking lot nearby. Maybe you'll throw yourself in the neighborhood shelter built in the 1960s. Maybe you'll lie down in some ditch ... It's lucky they didn't flee to a palace in Qatar.
Roman Bronfman (Ukrainian-born Israeli politician) adds: It turns out that not only were "Israel's senior officials" brought to hiding places, but also key members of the Likud Center (!) with their families not in their homes starting on Thursday, as well as rabbis close to the government. The new "elite" is cowardly.
The mindless tyrant, driven by the narcissistic psychosis of someone whose days are short, is inflicting Ukraine onIsrael(Yigal Sarna, founder of Peace Now):
The mindless tyrant, driven by the narcissistic psychosis of someone whose days are short, without a single strong person around him, is inflicting Ukraine on Israel. He began, with the consent [and co-ordination] of the US … and with the help of the CIA, with a blitzkrieg to achieve what he wanted within Israel. He will sacrifice all of Tel Aviv for another year.
Back in 2010, Meir Dagan and Ashkenazi and co. stopped him. Dagan said many times that it is impossible to stop the Iranian nuclear program in war. But it is over. Dagan is dead … The heads of the Shin Bet and the IDF are lazy people who will do whatever he says. After the personal assassinations as a mafia act, which has become our hallmark, he is scraping nuclear facilities that have been prepared for decades. He fortifies hatred and stupidity, because he only wants war as a distraction. He doesn't have a millimetre of thought about the future because it's all in the past.
If the fire continues … our pilots who finished razing Gaza will try to raze cities in giant Iran … And in the meantime, the Israelis are getting a taste of war in the rear without any protection because no government has built a bunker for the people. Nada. If the gang government continues to run everything, Israel will live like Ukraine in a perpetual war.
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If Israel is humiliated, i wouldny want to be a Palestinian,
especially a Gazan... Israel is unrestrained in its revenge...
So Israel has overplayed its hand then.