Alastair Cooke's, "Initial Thoughts on the Collapse of Syria"
"Iran warned Assad two months ago that HTS was preparing to make a move"
The following article was published by former British Ambassador and MI6 Intelligence officer, Alastair Crooke on his relatively new Substack platform, Conflicts Forum.
I have included Alastair’s discussion with Judge Napolitano from earlier today after his analysis of the collapse of Syria.
Initial Thoughts on the Collapse of Syria
‘Iran warned Assad two months ago that HTS was preparing to make a move’
Conflicts Forum • December 8, 2024 ∙ PAID
The Syrian State as it has been for the past 50-odd years is gone. A loose coalition of Turkish-supported armed militia (many non-Syrian) jihadists and other western trained groups, on the night of 8 Dec. took Damascus with no resistance put up by the Syrian Army. Government forces withdrew and the Airport ceased working. Israel continued to bomb Hezbollah positions and already IDF tanks have invaded parts of the Syrian Golan and have taken Mt Herman.
Iran and Iraq have decided not to intervene in the conflict. The Iranian embassy in Damascus has been ransacked and Assad’s presidential palace has been looted. Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq closed their borders with Syria. The Kurds announced total mobilization on the territories under their control. As of now, Syrian officials are said to be negotiating with the militants to keep the civilian infrastructure and the state apparatus functioning, as former Al-Qae’da leader, Al-Joulani is named Head of State (despite a large bounty on his ‘terrorist’ head still at the US State Dept website). Numerous ISIS fighters, among others, have been released from prisons. HTS have started targeted executions in Aleppo, as well as public executions, with one public hanging posted on the internet, reportedly of Bashar al-Assad's cousin, Ammar Assad.
· SouthFront: “Syrians fought and died to bring back the old Syria. They wanted to destroy the jihadists, rebuild the economy and live as before. Bashar al-Assad acted as a symbol of these processes. Unfortunately, after all the trials, the Syrian people only got a worse life. There was no gas, no light, and no gasoline. [Qatar was quick to supply HTS with the means to light Aleppo, funding the electricity in the city]. All this poverty was multiplied by rampant corruption among officials and military officers (whose pay was derisory). Syrians began to no longer believe in their future”.
· British journalist, Vanessa Beeley (who left Syria in the last days [yesterday]): “Chaos rules, looting, thuggery and thieving … the border was a mash of gunfire, infighting and looting ... Terrorists on motorcycles, gunslingers and criminals … ‘rebels’ drunk on ‘victory’ … Early morning, Israel was destroying Syria Air Defences with bunker buster bombs … The CIA road map is always the same. The Resistance is broken … but the extremist mercenaries in the pay of Israel will tell you they ‘support Palestine’”.
Behind the Scenes: ‘Iran warned Assad two months ago that HTS was preparing to make a move’
· An Iranian official has outlined: “Iran warned Assad two months ago that HTS was preparing to make a move, but he dismissed the threat. The Turkish FM gave [Iran] assurances that nothing will take place, which turned out to be a lie. After HTS entered western Aleppo, Iran expected Assad to ask for military assistance, and we were fully prepared to oblige with troops and whatever else was needed -- but no such request came. After Aleppo fell, it became clear that Assad had no real intentions of staying in power, so we started to engage in diplomatic talks with the Opposition and arranged the safe exit of our troops from Syria. If the SAA does not fight, neither will we risk our soldiers' lives. Russia and the UAE had managed to convince him to step down, so there was nothing we could do'”. The official continued: “Ali Larijani reportedly offered [Assad] pre-set conditions two weeks ago in Damascus. Assad didn’t agree with them and even refused to meet with Larijani, Iran’s special envoy, when he returned to Damascus Friday Dec 6. [In addition] Assad refused to open the Golan front, despite being asked to by the Resistance groups. The Assad government, after becoming too close to the Gulf Arab countries, put a lot of restrictions on IRGCQF [which] sparked dissatisfaction. [An] ex-IRGCQF officer claimed Iran intelligence knew two months ago that rebel groups in Idlib were up to something. He claims Iranians shared their worries with Turkey, but “Turks deceived them and assured Iranians there’s nothing to be afraid of”; [We] should not have trusted the Turks. The situation in Syria has not ended and it’s going spark unrest. Especially between Kurdish SDF vs Turkish-backed rebel groups (e.g. HTS) and inner fights among rebel groups”.
Another source:
“In his last meeting with Iran’s Leader on June 10, approximately 6 months ago, the Supreme Leader warned Assad: “The West and their regional allies aimed to overthrow Syria’s political system through war and remove Syria from the regional equation but failed. Now, they seek to achieve this goal through other means [hybrid warfare], including false promises they will never fulfil”. This warning reflected a deep understanding of the situation. Even before the ground war in Lebanon, Iran had repeatedly told Assad to strengthen his forces in light of the growing terrorist threat (by Turkish-backed groups) … [They] provided formal suggestions, but Assad ignored all these warnings. Assad also started siding with the GCC & they exercised pressure on him to distance himself from Iran & the Resistance. This pattern continued until Assad was on the verge of collapse. Iran had high-ranking officials to negotiate with Assad on Iran’s commitment to strengthening [his] position. However, a critical strategic error pushed Assad towards his downfall: The placing of hope in promises from Arab actors in the region”.
Russia too offered Assad support, as one commentator notes:
“In 2018, Russia proposed to the Syrian government to reform the armed forces. It was proposed to supply new equipment on credit. It could be repaid using benefits for Russian companies in the SAR. The Syrian leadership rejected this proposal. Meanwhile, the Turks and other NATO members were turning the militants into something resembling a real army. At the same time, all combat commanders who fought against the Russian military since 2015 were removed from command posts in the Syrian army. The trained units were disbanded. Over the past year, new commanders were appointed in all divisions and brigades in the Aleppo, Idlib, and Hama areas. Eventually, they fled with their soldiers. As for Iran, the US and Israel did not allow them to transfer troops and equipment. The same can be said about Hezbollah”.
What they’re saying: “The reality is that Ankara wields little influence over HTS”
· Turkish commentator, Murat Yetkin: “Damascus is falling; Tehran ‘gets it’; Ankara can’t: this includes the government, opposition, and intellectuals alike. Those who have pursued politics under the illusion that “solving the problem means making a deal with Assad” – while failing to see that Bashar Assad and the Baath regime barely maintain control over a fraction of Syrian territory, and only then with Russian and Iranian support – are now left lamenting past opportunities … Erdoğan’s 6 December statement that “This is not what we desired” carries multiple layers of meaning. The reality is that Ankara wields little influence over HTS … Opposition CHP remain trapped in the illusion that “peace with Assad will stabilize Syria”. Just before HTS’s advance on Aleppo, CHP leader Özgür Özel spoke of potentially approaching Assad alongside Erdogan, as if they held sway over Assad and the Baath oligarchy that even Moscow and Tehran couldn’t fully control … The US, which had previously expelled Türkiye from its F-35 fighter jet program has apparently opened the possibility of Türkiye’s return to the F-35 program - and Türkiye has submitted a new request to purchase 40 F-35s”.
· Hashem al-Haidari, prominent Iraqi Shia cleric and senior figure in the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces: “Although Iraq is not a party to the crisis, it has to protect itself in light of what is happening in a neighbouring country, and Syria represents our vital security area that cannot be separated from Iraq. Iraq cannot turn a blind eye when terrorist groups dominate Syria. Iraq today is different from Iraq in 2014”. "The war is just beginning, after Syria comes Iraq's turn. Two or three months ago, I said that after Lebanon comes Syria's turn, and after Syria comes Iraq's turn”.
· PM Netanyahu: "I have instructed the army to seize the buffer zone with Syria and the command posts adjacent to it”; announcing too the end of the 1974 Disengagement Agreement on the Syrian Golan Heights. IDF Chief of Staff Halevi said today: “Starting tonight, the main battle front will move to Syria. We will start fighting on the Syrian front and will not allow anyone to reach our borders”. The IDF has announced it has struck “around 100 targets inside Syria in the past few hours” and says that it has entered 14 km deep into Syrian territory facing no resistance. (Most of the Golan Heights are occupied by Israel; the eastern part was controlled by Syria).
· Daniel Shapiro, US Dep Asst Sec of Defense, confirmed that the US will maintain its military presence in eastern Syria.
· “After the coup in Syria, it is now inevitable that Iran will openly build and test nuclear weapons in the near future. In the past, they did not go down this route to preserve a precarious regional balance, but now they have no reason to hold back”.
Strategic Picture: “We are in the midst of World War Three”
· Brian Berletic, New Atlas: “Important to remember this is just one battle amid a much larger and more critical war between US hegemony and multi-polarism. No single battle is more important than the outcome of the [greater] war. Russia has been forced to make difficult decisions. It is not just fighting the US in Ukraine - it is fighting the US all along its periphery from Eastern Europe to Central Asia. The US strategy, as laid out in policy documents (literally titled: Extending Russia), is to "extend" Russia by creating multiple crises Russia is forced to react to eventually overstretching itself and collapsing. The goal is to isolate Iran (which now looks likely), then Russia, then China. Understand there is no place for you at the table: You cannot compromise. You cannot infinitely buy time. You either successfully defend your nation together with your allies or you lose it. I would submit that everything Russia, China, and Iran have done since hot global war erupted in February 2022 — and especially in recent months — leans strongly to the conclusion that they understand perfectly well the scope, stakes, and potential long duration of this conflict. We are in the midst of World War Three. You do what you need to do in order to buy time until you can do what you really want to do”.
· FM Lavrov at the OSCE on Thursday warned that the new Cold War is transitioning, now with a much greater risk of a ‘hot’ East-West conflict.
· Andrei Martyanov: “Russian bases in Syria ARE NOT there to "defend" Syria, let alone fight the war for Syrians ... again. If Syrians do not want to fight for their country, neither does Russia, nor does Iran, as it should be. Is it bad? For Syria it certainly is, for Russia -- let's wait and see”.
· Another Russian commentator: “The most important conclusion for Russia from the events that took place in Syria is that if Moscow goes to a "freeze" along the front line in Ukraine (without its denazification and demilitarization), then the current political leadership may begin to prepare for a new war with a much stronger opponent in three to five years. And it will start at the most unfortunate moment. This is Russia's most important Syrian lesson … And there are supporters of a "freeze" and compromise on Ukraine, who obviously are pushing for the collapse of our modern statehood. It is also obvious that Trumpists, inspired by success in the Middle East, want to finish us off … Now is the time to demonstrate extreme rigidity and extreme cruelty. Sharply criticized by most of the world community, Israel has shown how: the elimination of the illegitimate political leadership of Ukraine at all levels and a large-scale infrastructure war conducted systematically and consistently. In principle, this may be enough. Or maybe there will be a shortage, which will force you to make even more difficult decisions. Because the main blow of the new American administration will now fall on Russia. And she does not just have to stand up but achieve all her goals in the vital Ukrainian conflict for her”.
· What Russia could potentially loose: “The entire ‘Russian’ Africa rests on the transport artery through Khmeimim (Iran - Iraq - Syria - Mediterranean Sea - Africa). There are essentially no other sustainable routes. These are large investments by Russian state corporations in different countries, transportation of military personnel and equipment to Mali and other countries … The loss of Khmeimim is the loss not only of Syria, but also of the whole of Africa, where the French and Americans will quickly regain control of their colonies. This is not only about the loss of prestige, but about the emergence of serious problems in the geopolitical strategy of multipolarity and Russia's movement to the Global South in particular”.
What they’re saying: “Do Russia and Iran suspect that the big war is coming?”
· Ahmed Al-Sharaa, Commander of the Operations Dept of Armed Syrian Opposition: “The victory that was achieved is a victory for all Syrians. Bashar Al-Assad spread sectarianism and today our country is for all of us”.
· Turkish FM Hakan Fidan: “An era of instability in Syria that lasted 14 years has come to an end. Erdogan extended his hand to the Syrian government for the unity of Syria, but it was met with rejection … The territorial integrity of Syria and its state institutions must be preserved, and we will support stability in the country. Terrorist organizations, the PKK & ISIS must not be allowed to exploit the current situation.”.
· Will Schryver: “When the Chickens Come Home to Roost: It took a little over a century, but the terms of the ill-conceived partition of the post-WW1 Ottoman Empire will now be revisited. It will not proceed peacefully”.
· Alon Mizrahi: “Bear with me: if the West bet on Russia and Iran turning this assault into a wide and prolonged blood-fest in which the former will be exhausted - softening Iran for a planned fatal blow, it makes a lot of sense for Putin to not swallow the bait, right? And to make Syria the West's headache. Or do Russia and Iran suspect that the big war is coming, and they decided not to waste vital resources defending Assad?”
If you haven’t already, I recommend listening to Alastair’s discussion with Judge Napolitano from earlier today.
Please share Alastair’s original post and consider subscribing to his Conflicts Forum’s Substack.
